The impact of climate change on seasonal glaciation in the mountainous permafrost of North-Eastern Eurasia by the example of the giant Anmangynda aufeis

Abstract

This study examines the evolving dynamics of spring aufeis fields in the mountain permafrost zone of North-Eastern Eurasia, emphasizing their significance as indicators of permafrost-hydrogeological processes. Focusing on the representative Anmangynda river basin giant aufeis field, our research spans 1962 to 2022 and unveils temporal variations in aufeis characteristics.Over the historical period (1963–1990), the aufeis maximum pre-ablation area ranged from 4.3 to 6.8 km2, with a volume of 5.3 to 11.7 million m3. In the present era (2000–2022), these figures decreased to 3.5–5.4 km2 and 5.0–8.2 million m3, respectively. The region experienced heightened air temperatures and precipitation, with the most significant shifts occurring during early winter (October–December). Increased snow cover depth and earlier formation were also observed. Ground temperatures followed suit with an upward trend. Correlation analyses reveal a noteworthy link between average air temperatures from August to November and aufeis characteristics in both historical and current contexts. Moreover, solid precipitation and air temperatures in November and December displayed a moderate yet statistically significant correlation with aufeis size parameters during 2000–2022. Notably, no significant correlation emerged between aufeis characteristics and the Anmangynda River streamflow or liquid precipitation. This research underscores the interplay between climatic variables and aufeis dynamics, offering insights into the impacts of changing climatic conditions on the permafrost-hydrogeological system. The observed reduction of aufeis area and volume, coupled with the altered freezing and melting periods, align with broader cryospheric changes. As aufeis fields continue to evolve, this study highlights the complexities in their responses and their relevance as indicators of climate-driven alterations in the cryosphere. Further research is essential to fully unravel these intricate relationships and assess their implications for regional hydrology and ecosystems.