The Impact of Climate Change on River Alternate Bars

Abstract

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the distribution of flow discharge in rivers worldwide. We study the impact of climate‐driven flow changes on the shape of riverbed, and specifically on alternate bars, large deposits of gravel/sand that often form in rivers. We consider the illustrative example of the Alpine Rhine River, showing two nearby reaches with similar hydro‐morphological characteristics, but different channel width. Hydrological projections are obtained from literature, while the evolution of alternate bars is predicted through a novel, semi‐analytical model. Results show a remarkably different behavior of the two reaches: the upstream one, being wide enough for a full development of alternate bars, is resistant to flow alterations; the downstream reach, whose width is close to threshold conditions, is highly susceptible to future changes, showing a strong tendency to increase bar prominence. These findings reflect a general tendency of near‐threshold geomorphic systems to be vulnerable to anthropic stressors.