Abstract
Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.
Highlights
Coffee (Coffea L.) is the world’s favourite beverage and the second-most traded commodity after oil
In this study we model the indigenous distribution of Arabica for the present day, and for the future under the influence of climate change until 2080, in order to identify priorities and facilitate appropriate decision making
Testing of the models after the removal of the spatial sorting bias, and using only the core region, gave an AUC value of 0.78. This was performed in order to test the models to the extreme, but not for the actual models used in the rest of the analyses
Summary
Coffee (Coffea L.) is the world’s favourite beverage and the second-most traded commodity after oil. Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) and robusta coffee (C. canephora Pierre ex A.Froehner) are the two main species used in the production of coffee, the former is by far the most significant, providing approximately 70% of commercial production [1]. The productivity (green bean yield) of Arabica is tightly linked to climatic variability, and is strongly influenced by natural climatic oscillations [2]. The stated optimum mean annual temperature range for Arabica is 18–21uC [3], or up to 24uC [4]. At temperatures above 23uC, development and ripening of fruits are accelerated, often leading to the loss of beverage quality [5], in some locations higher temperatures (24–25uC) can still produce satisfactory yields of beans, such as in northeast Brazil [6]
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