The impact of climate change on fire risk in Daxing’anling, China

Abstract

Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021–2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971–2000), the period 2021–2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02–2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4–40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2–11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5–17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3–6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.