The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Forestry Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity Change

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on forestry efficiency (FRE) and total factor productivity change (TFPC) in 31 provinces of China for a study period of 2001–2020. Additionally, the study aims to evaluate the success level of governmental initiatives used to mitigate climate change. Using the DEA-SBM, this study estimates the forestry efficiency for 31 Chinese provinces and seven regions. Results indicate that the average forestry efficiency score obtained is 0.7155. After considering climatic factors, the efficiency level is 0.5412. East China demonstrates the highest average efficiency with a value of 0.9247, while the lowest score of 0.2473 is observed in Northwest China. Heilongjiang, Anhui, Yunnan, and Tibet exhibit the highest efficiency scores. Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan are the five provinces most affected by climate change. This study’s findings indicate that the average total factor forestry productivity (TFPC) is 1.0480, representing an increase of 4.80%. The primary determinant for change is technology change (TC), which surpasses efficiency change (EC). Including climate variables reduces total factor productivity change (TFPC) to 1.0205, mainly driven by a decrease in TC. The region of South China exhibits the highest total factor productivity change (TFPC) with a value of 1.087, whereas both Northeast China and Central China observe falls below 1 in TFPC. The Mann–Whitney U test provides evidence of statistically significant disparities in forestry efficiency and TFPC scores when estimated with and without incorporating climate factors. Kruskal–Wallis found a statistically significant difference in FRE and TFPC among seven regions.