Abstract
The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.
Highlights
Agriculture remains the main activity in the Ethiopian economy and contributes, on average, 44 percent of GDP and employs over 80 percent of the population (MoFED, 2013)
This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy
Summary
Agriculture remains the main activity in the Ethiopian economy and contributes, on average, 44 percent of GDP and employs over 80 percent of the population (MoFED, 2013). Smallholder households produce more than 90 percent of the agricultural output and cultivate more than 90 percent of the total cropped land. Crop production is the dominant subsector, accounting for more than 60 percent of agricultural GDP, followed by livestock with 20 percent. It is estimated that 16.5 million hectares (14.8 percent) of the country’s land area is potentially suitable for agricultural production. The potentially irrigable land in the country is about 3.7 million hectares. Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the tenth-largest in the world, with about 70 million head of livestock
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