The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptation Mechanisms: The Case of Egypt

Abstract

Climate change has adverse effect on agricultural production in developing countries, especially in those with low incomes and a high rate of hunger and poverty. Although the agricultural sector will be costly to adapt to climate change, it is essential to achieving food security. This study aims to analysis the impact of climate change on agriculture and adaptation mechanisms in Egypt during the period (1980:2018) using Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ARDL). The empirical results inferred that most of the variables are insignificant in the short-run. In the long run, the empirical results revealed that the impact of climate change on agricultural production, including the emissions of carbon dioxide and temperature, is positive. Hence, even if the impact of the rain variable is negative, but its value is low, and then Egypt has not entered a critical or dangerous stage. On the other hand, the results indicated that the research directed at increasing productivity and developing new varieties more compatible with climate changes is insufficient. Even if the research is available, the Egyptian farmer does not use it due to lack of agricultural Extension. For mechanical and chemical technology effect, the long-run coefficient of Fertilizers is insignificant. The long-run coefficient of the number of tractors is negative and significant, while rural population coefficient is positive and significant. This means that Egyptian agriculture is more dependent on manpower than mechanical technology