The impact of climate change on agricultural labour productivity: implications for human mobility and poverty

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Working in hot or cold environments causes discomfort, fatigue, and cognitive impairment, raising the risk for health complications. The present study developed a new model to estimate the impact of ambient conditions on labour productivity based on field data and applied this model to predict the welfare implications of climate change by estimating the labour productivity change between the years 2000 and 2040. METHODS: In total, we monitored 1,260 hours of work performed by 194 (men=123; women=71) experienced and acclimatized agriculture workers from 10 nationalities. Time-motion analysis using video recordings was used to extract detailed information on each worker’s activities during their work shift. Sine orthogonal distance regression was used to generate the labor loss functions for WBGT and air temperature. Using this model, we projected the welfare implications across the globe of climate change by estimating the labour productivity change between the years 2000 and 2040, using an extended unified general equilibrium framework combining labour mobility and trade interactions between locations. RESULTS: Our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship with the highest labour productivity observed at 15 °C WBGT or ambient temperature (R2 0.95-0.98). By applying this model to project global welfare implications, we found that the ongoing climate change is expected to impair agricultural labour productivity, promoting significant labour mobility and wealth redistribution across the globe. In contrast to cold regions, which are projected to have average gains up to 6.3%, regions located close to the equator, where poverty is widespread, will face average losses up to 1.2% in productivity and wealth. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections show larger labour productivity losses in countries where poverty is widespread and the economy is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector. This creates concerns over whether the 1st Sustainable Development Goal involving eradication of poverty can be achieved by 2030.