Abstract
AbstractSociety is currently facing an unprecedented challenge in terms of achieving food and nutrition security for a rapidly expanding global population while also minimising and reversing damage to the natural environment. Compounding this issue is climate change, which adversely affects the four pillars of food security: availability, access, utilisation and stability. This study aims to quantify the potential impact of future climate and societal change on food and nutrition security under a range of plausible scenarios. Malawi is used as a case study given it is one of the most food insecure countries in the world. Using the Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation modelling framework, the quantity and quality of the national food supply are assessed under a suite of future (2050) climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The results indicate that undernourishment prevalence could be reduced in Malawi under a best‐case scenario; however, undernourishment is likely to increase assuming either a business‐asusual or a pessimistic scenario. On the other hand, the quality of the food supply in Malawi (in terms of micronutrient provision) is likely to decrease even under a best‐case scenario. Moreover, projected dietary change in the form of nutrition transition in Malawi is unlikely to improve micronutrient provision sufficiently to meet requirements. This is a consequence of the already low supply of micronutrient dense foods in Malawi, the negative impact of climate change on micronutrient dense crops and an insufficient increase in micronutrient dense foods associated with nutrition transition. This study highlights the importance of moving beyond the focus on dietary energy supply as a measure of food security since nutrient adequacy of diets may be a more pressing issue in the future than simply the quantity of food and supply of energy.
Highlights
Society currently faces an unprecedented challenge of meeting human nutritional needs in the context of natural resource scarcity and the rapid transformation of Earth’s natural environment
This study aims to quantify the potential impact of future climate and societal change on food and nutrition security under a range of plausible scenarios
While it is recognised that climate change will likely impact all dimensions of food security, this study focuses on the availability dimension in terms of crop yields
Summary
Society currently faces an unprecedented challenge of meeting human nutritional needs in the context of natural resource scarcity and the rapid transformation of Earth’s natural environment. Coupled with the increasing demand for nutritious food are the issues of climate change and other environmental stressors (soil degradation, water scarcity, etc.) on the supply side. Climate change is likely already affecting food security across the globe (Kotir, 2011; Ray et al, 2019) and is projected to significantly affect our ability to meet future food demands (Myers et al, 2017). Despite major increases in food production over the past century which has largely kept up with demand, levels of food and nutrition insecurity remain high. An estimated 821 million people worldwide are undernourished (calorie intake below minimum requirements), two billion people suffer from a deficiency in one or more micronutrients, and 22% of children are stunted (shorter than average height for age) (FAO et al, 2018) Nowhere are these problems more pertinent than sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where one in four people are undernourished (FAO et al, 2018)
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