The Impact of China's Pandemic Deregulation Policy on SSEC and SZSE Indexes

Abstract

In early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, Chinese stock market experienced a sharp decline as investors became increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of the pandemic. As the pandemic continued to spread globally, the Chinese government implemented strict measures to control its spread, which included lockdowns, travel restrictions, and other forms of social distancing. Although these measures worked, economy was drastically affected with many stores closing down and consumer expenditures significantly declining. This, meanwhile, led to a decrease in corporate profits and a reduction in investor confidence. However, on December 8, 2022, the Chinese government issued a pandemic deregulation policy identifying people would return to their normal life. In this paper, prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index and Shenzhen Securities Component (SZSE) index were retrieved and ARIMA method was adopted to predict the stock prices for a period after the pandemic. The author compared forecast prices with the actual stock prices and then analyzed the implications of the deregulation policy on the stock market. These two indexes are only a snapshot of the Chinese economy, and certain informative feedback can be obtained through this study, which is helpful to relevant investors and policy makers.