The impact of chemotherapy and survival prediction by machine learning in early Elderly Triple Negative Breast Cancer (eTNBC): a population based study from the SEER database

Abstract

PurposeWe aimed to analysis the impact of chemotherapy and establish prediction models of prognosis in early elderly triple negative breast cancer (eTNBC) by using machine learning.MethodsWe enrolled 4,696 patients in SEER Database who were 70 years or older, diagnosed with primary early TNBC(larger than 5 mm), from 2010 to 2016. The propensity-score matched method was utilized to reduce covariable imbalance. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to compare breast cancer-specific survival(BCSS) and overall survival(OS). Nine models were developed by machine learning to predict the 5-year OS and BCSS for patients received chemotherapy.ResultsCompared to matched patients in no-chemotherapy group, multivariate analysis showed a better survival in chemotherapy group. Stratified analyses by stage demonstrated that patients with stage II and stage III other than stage I could benefit from chemotherapy. Further investigation in stage II found that chemotherapy was a better prognostic indicator for patients with T2N0M0 and stage IIb, but not in T1N1M0. Patients with grade III could achieve a better survival by receiving chemotherapy, but those with grade I and II couldn’t. With 0.75 in 5-year BCSS and 0.81 in 5-year OS for AUC, the LightGBM outperformed other algorithms.ConclusionFor early eTNBC patients with stage I, T1N1M0 and grade I-II, chemotherapy couldn’t improve survival. Therefore, de-escalation therapy might be appropriate for selected patients. The LightGBM is a trustful model to predict the survival and provide precious systemic treatment for patients received chemotherapy.