The impact of carbon market on city greening: Quasi-experimental evidence from China

Abstract

This paper investigates the regional spillover effects of the project-based voluntary market under the carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). By exploiting one local offset mechanism (China's PHCER) as a quasi-experiment, we detect the unintended causal effect of the carbon market on greening the city. Using the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator, we find that the voluntary carbon market resulted in a 14.45% (14.34%) increase in city-year-level NDVI summary value (per capita). The primary mechanism is the expansion of forest carbon sequestration projects. Cities with lower carbon emissions and fewer carbon market participants experience a greater causal effect. More importantly, we find no evidence to support the crowding out of arable land by forest carbon sequestration projects. Finally, several policy implications for a more functional carbon market are discussed.