Abstract
The impact of carbon emission trading (ETS) has been widely investigated. In contrast to the existing studies, this article explores for the first time the theoretical relationship between the ETS and industrial green total factor productivity (IGTFP) and tests it empirically. Furthermore, the article investigates the mediating mechanisms and possible regional heterogeneity of the influence of the ETS on IGTFP. To this end, a time-varying difference-in-differences technique is employed, drawing on panel data of 276 cities in China from 2005 to 2019. The results show that the ETS significantly and robustly increases IGTFP in pilot regions. Green technological innovation and industrial structure have a significant mediating effect on the nexus of the ETS and IGTFP. However, there exists no mediating mechanism of general technological innovation. In addition, economic development and energy consumption positively moderate the effect of the ETS on IGTFP, and industrial dependence negatively moderates such an effect.
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