The impact of capital flows from Hong Kong on stock market returns in mainland China

Abstract

The People’s Republic of China has increasingly become an attractive location for foreign capital. The flow of foreign capital into mainland China includes the so-called northbound cash flow which is a colorful term that is often used to describe capital flowing into the mainland from Hong Kong. Two markets that have become an attractive destination for northbound cash flow is the Shanghai stock exchange and the Shenzhen stock exchange. This paper investigates the impact, if any, of northbound cash flows on investor sentiment for investors residing in mainland China. In other words, the paper attempts to ascertain whether the extent of northbound cash flows influences the extent to which mainland investors feel either bullish or bearish about the market. The research objective is addressed using quantitative models and focuses on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange. Research results indicate that northbound cash flows from Hong Kong significantly impacts investor sentiment in mainland China.