Abstract
AbstractThis paper studies the causal impact of Brexit on the post‐graduation mobility decisions of EU students in the UK. We exploit the British government’s formal withdrawal notification under Article 50 as a natural experiment. Using data from a survey of graduating international students administered before and after the triggering of Article 50, we find that EU students are significantly more likely than non‐EU students to plan on leaving the UK upon graduation immediately after the announcement. Results are driven by students from the new EU countries and students from the EU14 countries who do not have firm migration plans.
Highlights
In the past few decades, international migration has been growing worldwide
Over the same time period, return intentions remain remarkably constant for non-European Union (EU) students, suggesting that the control group is unaffected by Article 50 news exposure
Our tabulations show that 84% of all students who in the first wave said that they intended to leave the UK immediately after graduation have eventually left the country, with this figure being as high as 90% when we focus on EU students alone
Summary
In the past few decades, international migration has been growing worldwide. While many migrants decide to permanently settle in the host country, for many others migration is a temporary process and they eventually return home. International students bring unique talent and skills, contribute to a diverse academic environment, ensure the provision of subjects, and generate economic benefits through their consumption They constitute a potential pool of skilled labour market entrants, especially in the case of EU students, who have virtually no restrictions for working in the UK. Even before Brexit produces actual changes in migration laws, policy announcements such as the triggering of Article 50 can influence – directly or indirectly – the decision to stay or migrate out of the UK through a multitude of economic, legal and psychological factors It could influence student expectations in terms of university fees, funding opportunities, labour market perspectives, visa requirements, prices and exchange rates, and more generally, the social and cultural climate.
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