Abstract
Recent work in network traffic matrix estimation has focused on generating router-to-router or PoP-to-PoP (Point-of-Presence) traffic matrices within an ISP backbone from network link load data. However, these estimation techniques have not considered the impact of inter-domain routing changes in BGP (Border Gateway Protocol). BGP routing changes have the potential to introduce significant errors in estimated traffic matrices by causing traffic shifts between egress routers or PoPs within a single backbone network. We present a methodology to correlate BGP routing table changes with packet traces in order to analyze how BGP dynamics affect traffic fan-out within a large "tier-1" network. Despite an average of 133 BGP routing updates per minute, we find that BGP routing changes do not cause more than 0.03% of ingress traffic to shift between egress PoPs. This limited impact is mostly due to the relative stability of network prefixes that receive the majority of traffic -- 0.05% of BGP routing table changes affect intra-domain routes for prefixes that carry 80% of the traffic. Thus our work validates an important assumption underlying existing techniques for traffic matrix estimation in large IP networks.
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