The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explore the impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry. A Delphi-based scenario study for the year 2040 was conducted, resulting via fuzzy clustering in the identification of three meaningful futures we refer to as cooperation and partnerships, OEM's business model under attack and OEM's position degraded. There is consensus among the experts that cooperation among logistics service companies, original equipment manufacturer, and tier 1 suppliers will be a key lever that enables innovative business models. Business models structured around offering holistic systems for automated driving will be the future. Stakeholders, i.e. truck manufacturers, suppliers, and logistics companies, should be aware that neglecting to invest in autonomous technologies might have serious consequences in the long-term. The scenarios developed in this paper provide guidance for the automotive and logistics industries in terms of adoption of autonomous driving technology and adaption of business models.