The impact of an ageing population on the required hospital capacity: results from forecast analysis on administrative data.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the impact of population ageing on the required hospital capacity. We used hospital discharge (years 2003-2014) and population data to estimate the required hospital capacity by 2025 for older inpatients (≥ 75years) taking into account population changes and trends in hospital admission rates and length of stay. In addition, we developed an alternative scenario to evaluate the impact of accelerated ageing based on the peaks in population ageing from 2030 onwards. The number of inpatient stays for our study population is expected to increase from 478,027 in 2014 to 590,313 in 2025 (+ 23.5%). The average length of stay is expected to decrease by 18.4% (- 2.3days). As a consequence, the number of inpatient days and the required bed capacity will only increase by 42,709 days (+ 0.7%) and 72 beds (+ 0.4%), respectively. The accelerated ageing scenario shows that the increase between 2014 and 2025 is more pronounced for inpatient stays (+ 50.5%), inpatient days (+ 21.9%) and hospital beds (+ 21.1%). Ageing will, if no drastic policy actions are taken, impact the required hospital capacity. This can initially (by 2025) be more or less controlled by further reductions in length of stay. From 2030, it is expected that the required hospital bed capacity will increase exponentially with a pronounced shift between general acute care beds towards geriatric and chronic care beds. If policy makers want to revert this trend, substantial investments in hospital alternatives will be required.