Abstract
This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000–155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000–76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million– 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.
Highlights
Unhealthy diets (11%) and high body mass index (9%) are the risk factors that contribute most to the burden of disease in Australia [1]
The tax was assumed to apply in addition to the existing Goods and Services Tax (GST), with the effect that the consumer price of Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) would increase by 20%
The 20% increase in price would result in an average change in consumption of SSBs from 141 g/day to 124 g/day across the Australian adult male population and from 76 to 67 g/day for women, representing a 12.6% decrease
Summary
Unhealthy diets (11%) and high body mass index (9%) are the risk factors that contribute most to the burden of disease in Australia [1]. In order to reduce diet-related diseases, overweight, and obesity, focus should be placed on creating healthy food environments, whereby foods and beverages that contribute to a healthy diet are more readily available, affordable, and physically accessible, compared to unhealthy foods [2]. Food taxes have been frequently identified as a powerful tool to improve population diets [3], with evidence indicating that taxes are an effective intervention to improve the healthiness of consumption patterns [4]. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that country-level programs to combat obesity should. The Impact of a Tax on Sugared Drinks.
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