Abstract
BackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity.MethodsWe estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England.ResultsWe find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After 3 months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance; 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality.ConclusionGood compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.
Highlights
Since the December 2019 outbreak in China, the novel coronavirus virus (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic
Our results provide evidence that good compliance to lockdown regulations shows strong positive economic effects in the short-term, at £31.91 million after 1 month, and £398.58 million after 3 months, the end of the UK lockdown
About 75% of the work productivity effects are due to differences in non-health and morbidity effects and 25% are explained by premature mortality effects between the two scenarios
Summary
Since the December 2019 outbreak in China, the novel coronavirus virus (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic. Whilst the health benefits of good public compliance vs poor compliance to these NPIs in response to pandemic outbreaks have been clearly identified, the economic effects are unknown.[4,5,6]. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. Methods: We estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures
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