The Impact Caused by COVID-19 Pandemic on Pfizer Inc. Stock Price: Based on a Counterfactual Framework

Abstract

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads worldwide, many nations have implemented social distance regulations and quarantine measures to stop the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. During this period, people's consumption levels dropped all over the world, resulting in a decrease in the capacity of the entire society to produce goods and services. As a result, thousands of workers lost their jobs and numerous manufacturing plants, entertainment companies struggled financially until going out of business. However, the value of some biopharmaceutical firms' shares has climbed rather than fallen due to some of these businesses made great contribution on preventing the spread of the pandemic by developing vaccines and useful medications. In this article, an American multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology corporation, Pfizer Inc. was selected and daily stock data from February 2009 to December 2022 was extracted. The ARIMA model was applied to forecast the stock price of Pfizer Inc. without the Covid-19 pandemic. This study focuses on comparing the forecasted stock price with actual stock price and explores the possible reasons for this difference.