Abstract
Imminent fractures refer to the fractures that occur within 2years of an initial fracture. It is well known that the risk of a subsequent fracture is not constant with time and occurs shortly after the initial one. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to present the existing data on imminent fracture worldwide. Literature search was conducted in Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science databases until 26 October 2021 for studies reporting the incidence of imminent osteoporotic fractures among people aged 50years or older. The overall incidence of imminent fracture was pooled and subgroup analyses of index fracture sites and regions on incidence of imminent fracture were performed, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) being calculated. Percentage of imminent fracture occurring in follow-up period was calculated and pooled by meta-analysis. Hazard ratio (HR) was used to estimate the gender differences on the imminent risk of fracture. A total of 1446 articles were identified. Nineteen observational studies were eligible for our systematic review, in which 18 were used for quantitative analysis. Pooled overall incidence of imminent fracture in the first year after an osteoporotic fracture was 7.58% (95% CI 5.84 to 9.31%) and cumulative incidence in the first 2years was 11.58% (95% CI 8.94 to 14.21%). Subgroup analysis showed that in the first 2years, the pooled incidence in Asia was 7.30% (95% CI 3.42 to 11.18%), whilst incidence in Europe/North America was 13.17% (95% CI 10.14 to 16.20%). In included studies with follow-up period of more than 5years, pooled imminent fracture percentage in the first 2years was 47.24% (95% CI 26.18 to 68.30%). Hazard ratio (HR) on gender showed that women had an overall slight increase in risk of imminent fractures (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25). The incidence of imminent fracture is high globally at 11.58%. Approximately half of all refractures occur in the first 2years after an index fragility fracture. Older patients that have suffered from a fragility fracture should be treated promptly. Also, immediate care and secondary fracture prevention are necessary to prevent the high imminent risk of a fracture, especially within the first 2years.
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