The Ignition Frequency of Structural Fires in Australia from 2012 to 2019

Abstract

Appropriate estimates of ignition frequency derived from fire statistics are crucial for quantifying fire risks, given that ignition frequency underpins all probabilistic fire risk assessments for buildings. Rahikainen et al. (Fire Technol 2004; 40:335–53) utilized the generalized Barrois model to evaluate ignition frequencies for different buildings in Finland. The Barrois model provides a good prediction of the trend of the ignition frequency; however, it can underestimate the ignition frequency depending on the building type. In this study, an analysis of the Australian fire statistical data from 2012 to 2019 was performed and compared with studies from Finland. A new coefficient is proposed to improve the Barrois model for a better fit for buildings in Australia. Several categories, such as hotels and hospitals, which were absent in previous studies, have been included as separate categories in this study. Office and retail spaces in Finland have an ignition frequency one order of magnitude lower than in Australia. On the other hand, other buildings (retail and apartments in particular) are much more prone to fire ignition in Australia than in Finland. The improved generalized Barrois model based on the Australian fire statistical data will be useful for determining ignition frequency for risk quantification in the Australian context.