Abstract

Iran has faced many water shortage crises in the past. Iran’s moisture sources for precipitation were identified by Lagrangian approach using the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) v9.0 model. The results demonstrate that Iran receives its moisture from both continental and oceanic sources. During the wet season, moisture uptake from the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Mediterranean Sea is dominant, while during the dry season, the role of the Red Sea, the Caspian Sea, and the Persian Gulf is intensified. Studying drought conditions by comparing 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) with (E-P) values of oceanic and continental moisture sources (E stands for the evaporation and P the precipitation) using multiregression model demonstrates that among oceanic sources the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Indian Ocean affect SPI values and among continental sources, moisture from bare grounds and cultivated lands influences SPI values during wet season. However, no correlation exists between oceanic and continental (E-P) and SPI values during the dry season. The results obtained by this study can be used by meteorologists and hydrology scientists for future water management programmes in Iran.

Highlights

  • Almost all aspects of any society are controlled and affected by climate, as it dominantly influences agriculture, economy, transportation, telecommunication, air pollution, and even political relations between countries

  • According to the threshold of 0.95% of (E-P) > 0 (Figure 2a,b), it can be observed that Iran receives moisture from different oceanic sources including the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black

  • In the model developed for the 1-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the wet season, only the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf have a direct influence on SPI values

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Summary

Introduction

Almost all aspects of any society are controlled and affected by climate, as it dominantly influences agriculture, economy, transportation, telecommunication, air pollution, and even political relations between countries. The oceanic and continental moisture uptake sources have been determined for the wet and dry seasons from 1981 to 2015 (Figure 7a,b). The Persian Gulf) and continental moisture sources on drought conditions, their (E-P) values on 1, 6, and 12 months SPI values have been correlated using multiregression models.

Results
Conclusion
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