The identification and conservation of climate refugia for two Colombian endemic titi (Plecturocebus) monkeys

Abstract

Natural resource managers face the challenge of developing conservation plans for key species and given that anthropogenic climate change (CC) effects on biodiversity are becoming increasingly evident, the new challenge is to properly incorporate CC adaptation strategies into such plans. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the potential CC effects on the climatically suitable areas for two Colombian endemic titi monkeys Plecturocebus ornatus and P. caquetensis and to identify the prospective climate refugia as macro-ecological adaptation strategies for each species. A detailed ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was applied with the maximum entropy algorithm, using presence records and different sets of bioclimatic variables describing baseline (1960–1990) and future climates (∼2070). Models of future climatic suitability were generated using projections of variables under a stabilization (RCP4.5) and business as usual (RCP8.5) scenarios with data from two general circulation models (GCMs) describing storylines of increasing (CESM1_CAM5) and decreasing (CSIRO_ACCESS1_3) rainfall patterns. The results for both species indicate that in a warmer future, opposite rainfall patterns and choice of the bioclimatic variables may lead to divergent responses on the extent and geographic distribution of their climatic niche, which varied from regions gaining, losing, and retaining suitability in potential climate refugia. Moreover, CC represents a serious threat for P. caquetensis and P. ornatus since their ranges may be largely exposed to novel climates. Their baseline climatic suitability area is projected to shrink and shift to higher elevations in the Andes mountains, and the climate refugia identified for both species are poorly covered by protected areas. Therefore, the climate refugia identified in this work and the management recommendations offered should be considered by species conservation plans to contribute to the selection of priority regions for conservation actions. The modeling approach reveals the uncertainties arising from the selection of bioclimatic variables and GCMs in ENM, which can be replicated to identify climate refugia targeting different species of conservation concern.