The hypothesis of the shape of the permafrost in Hornsund, Spitsbergen and the potential impact of its degradation on the Arctic

Abstract

The areas covered by permafrost in the polar regions are vulnerable to rapid changes in the current climate. The well-studied near-surface active layer and permafrost zone are in contrast to the unknown exact shape of the bottom permafrost boundary. Therefore, the entire shape of permafrost between the upper and lower boundaries is not identified with sufficient accuracy. Since most of the factors affecting deep cryotic structures are subsurface in nature, their evolution in deeper layers is also relatively unclear. Here, we propose a hypothesis based on the results of geophysical studies regarding the shape of the permafrost in the coastal area of Svalbard, Southern Spitsbergen. In the article, we emphasize the importance of recognizing not only the uppermost active layer but also the bottom boundary of permafrost along with its transition zone, due to the underestimated potential role of its continuity in observing climate change. The lower permafrost boundary is estimated to range from 70 m below the surface in areas close to the shore to 180 m inland, while a continuous layer of an entirely frozen matrix can be identified with a thickness between 40 m and 100 m. We also hypothesized the presence of the possible subsea permafrost in the Hornsund. The influence of seawater intrusions, isostatic uplift of deglaciated areas, and surface-related processes that affect permafrost evolution may lead to extensive changes in the hydrology and geology of the polar regions in the future. For all these reasons, monitoring, geophysical imaging and understanding the characteristics and evolution of deep permafrost structures requires global attention and scientific efforts.