The humpty dumpty effect: Emerging media diffusion and (Granger) causal democratic change in 122 countries from 1946 to 2014

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study extended prior findings examining traditional with cross-national time-series data analyses in sequences of Granger causality tests to examine the democratizing effects of internet and mobile phone diffusion through 2014. In this context, Media System Dependency (MSD) theory has suggested that in countries with high media diffusion or high sociopolitical instability, such emerging media diffusion should Granger cause democracy. However, no such relationships were observed when studying emerging media technology in the form of mobile phones or online access. Mobile diffusion was, however, observed to Granger cause sociopolitical instability in countries with high and low sociopolitical instability alike, as well as in countries with low media diffusion. These findings suggest that the diffusion of emerging media to date has not necessarily demonstrated the same democratizing capacity that MSD theory has previously ascribed to traditional media diffusion, and that any effects are indirect.