Abstract

Archaeologists and other scholars have long studied the causes of collapse and other major social transformations and debated how they can be understood. This article instead focuses on the human experience of living through those transformations, analyzing 18 transformation cases from the US Southwest and the North Atlantic. The transformations, including changes in human securities, were coded based on expert knowledge and data analyzed using Qualitative Comparative Analysis techniques. Results point to the following conclusions: Major transformations, including collapses, generally have a strong and negative impact on human security; flexible strategies that facilitate smaller scale changes may ameliorate those difficulties. Community security is strongly implicated in these changes; strong community security may minimize other negative changes. The relationships among the variables are complex and multi-causal; while social transformation may lead to declines in human securities, declining conditions of life can also push people to transform their societies in negative ways. Results show that some societies are better able to deal with difficulties than others. One important policy implication is that community security and local conditions can be instrumental both in helping people to cope with difficulties and in staving off some of those difficulties. A multi-scalar approach is essential as we face the increasing problems of climate change in the decades ahead.

Highlights

  • The analyses presented here are based on methods of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) developed by Charles Ragin [70,71,72] as well as recent extensions of the QCA approach by Breiger [73]

  • In the analyses presented in this paper, we use a common four-part scale; 1—full membership in a set, 0.75— more in a set than out, 0.25—more out of a set than in, and 0—fully out of set

  • The collapse of the Classic Maya Lowlands would be placed in the lower right quadrant because it exhibited both a breakdown of institutions and a substantial loss of population [32]. These results show that the key variables INSTITUTIONAL BREAKDOWN and DEPOPULATION co-vary strongly and cases with high scores on the key variables group together, indicating that they are similar according to other variables as well

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Summary

Introduction

Of the four transformation cases that experienced institutional breakdown (INST = 1) colored red (M2, MV2, H2, GE3), three are above the X-axis, generally pulled upward by the nature of change variables. The analyses presented so far considered the relationships among three sets of variables: the two key variables, INSTITUTIONAL BREAKDOWN and DEPOPULATION; the six generally neutral nature of change variables; and the seven human security variables that track changes in the condition of life.

Results
Conclusion
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