The Household Equity Share and Expected Market Returns

Abstract

The “Household Equity Share” (HEShare), the share of the household sector's equity and credit assets allocated to equities, is a negative predictor of excess returns on the US stock market. When the household sector has a higher equity share, future excess returns to equities are lower on average. This predictability is robust to the definition of the asset classes, first versus second half of sample, and adjusting for finite sample bias. HEShare outperforms many popular forecasters of market returns, including the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, the equity share in new issuances, and the consumption-wealth ratio. Our results suggest that household holdings of financial assets play an important role in setting asset prices and risk premia.