The House-Scale Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Italian Property Market

Abstract

The present research aims at identifying any changes in the market appreciations of the residential segment in Italy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. With reference to the first half of 2023 (phase III, “post-COVID-19”), in the paper, a logical–operational methodology is implemented: a sample of properties sold in the two-month period January–February 2023 is collected and an econometric analysis is applied for determining (i) the most influential factors on selling prices and (ii) the functional links between prices and each selected explanatory variable. Furthermore, the findings obtained are compared with those related to the phases I, “ante-COVID-19”, and II, “COVID-19 in itinere” (by recalling a previous study of the same authors), to highlight the variations between the periods and provide useful guidelines for the design of domestic spaces in different Italian geographical contexts. In addition, this work conducts a comparison of the outputs derived from the econometric analysis starting from the real estate data collected on the reference markets (revealed preferences) with the results of a direct survey carried out on a sample of individuals through the administration of an ad hoc developed questionnaire and aimed at investigating the opinions of potential buyers of residential properties (stated preferences). The use of the “twin” approach (an analysis of perceptions via the direct survey integrated by the implementation of an econometric technique) allows us to verify the consistence of the real dynamics of market (expressed by the interviewees) with the mathematical model results for investigating the house-scale effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the considered cities.