Abstract
After decades of rising homicide rates in the late 20th century, much of the Western world witnessed a decline in homicide from the early-mid-1990s. In England and Wales, homicide rates defied this trend and continued to rise for a further decade, peaking in 2004 before declining year on year until 2014. The late onset of the decline in England and Wales presents a quandary for dominant explanations of the broader decline, and has yet to be theorised. This article presents a disaggregated analysis of the homicide drop in England and Wales, identifying subtypes of homicide that appear to have driven the decline. The findings indicate changes in lifestyle, routine activities and social/criminal justice policy as the main drivers of the homicide drop, and contribute to international theory on homicide trends.
Highlights
Homicide rates in England and Wales witnessed consecutive increases between 2014 and 2018,1 reportedly driven by an upturn in fatal knife-attacks involving teenagers (Ellis, 2019; Younge, 2018)
The homicide rate decreased from a high of 14.38 per 1 million in the population to a low of 8.45
Through disaggregating the homicide rate by geographic region, it is clear that the downwards trend was driven by declines in particular regions, most notably Greater London, the North West and closely followed by the West Midlands
Summary
Homicide rates in England and Wales witnessed consecutive increases between 2014 and 2018,1 reportedly driven by an upturn in fatal knife-attacks involving teenagers (Ellis, 2019; Younge, 2018). This incline interrupted the longer-term decline in homicide observed from the mid-2000s, that forms the basis of this article. Numbers of homicides decreased for both men and women, when calculated as rates within the population of England and Wales, the analysis revealed that rates of female suspects and victims remained stable throughout the period of decline, and that the overall decrease was predominantly driven by declines in male homicide suspects and victims. Despite decreasing of numbers of kniferelated homicides (calculated as rates within the ever-growing population for England and Wales), stabbings have accounted for a growing proportion of illegal deaths for some time
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