The Historical Development Of Civil Aviation Security With Applications Of Time Series Modelling

Abstract

This research is related with sabotage events also named as hijacking in civil aviation accidents between the years 1979 and 2018. The reason why the year 1979 was chosen as the beginning is because the human factor started to be examined under the Crew Resource Management concept. Firstly content of this research related with; civil aviation security concept, CATSA, ATSC instutions and terrorist actions related to air transportation were mentioned. Secondly, privatization of airport security timeline about civil aviation security privatization with increment of the appropriations after the September 11, 2001 attack was explained. Thirdly, the distinctives of advanced terrorism are classified as; “worldwide terrorism,” “recent crimp terrorism,” “grand-terrorism”, “fourth-descent terrorism” and the classification of threats in civil aviation security such as; classes of acts, cases of acts and aim of actions concepts were also mentioned. This study examines the causalities and relationship between the security term of sabotage with the other terms aligned as yearly total number of passengers who had an accident, total number of commercial passengers, total number of passengers involved in accidents, and total number of accidents by the VAR model. Keywords: Civil Aviation Security, Sabotage, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Vector Autoregressive Model, Granger Causality Test. Jel Classification Codes: Y10, Y80, Y90, Z00.