The hidden impacts of the ICC: An innovative assessment using Google data

Geoffrey Thomas Dancy

doi:10.1017/s0922156521000194

Abstract

AbstractCommentators now regularly declare that the International Criminal court (ICC) – and international criminal law as a whole – is in crisis. It is certainly the case that the ICC faces a number of operational challenges, and that these challenges worry its defenders. However, one unexamined rationalist assumption is that the Court’s inability to deliver consistent outputs will mean waning influence. This article explores an alternative constructivist theory that the ICC produces diffuse social impacts that are not necessarily tied to its operating effectively. This theory is tested statistically using Google Trends data. Specifically, the article examines whether ICC intervention in a country is associated with more internet search for ‘human rights’. Taking this to be a measure of changing discourse in countries, the article finds that some types of ICC involvement are associated with a far higher interest in human rights, and that this interest only increases as ICC involvement extends in time. In short, despite its disappointments, evidence suggests that the ICC still serves a socio-pedagogical function. Though it does not fit well within a rational evaluation framework, this kind of information should be considered in ICC performance reviews.

Highlights

Of State Parties (ASP) establishing resolution,6 the Independent Expert Review (IER) performed its work with the aim of ‘enhancing the performance, efficiency and effectiveness of the Court : : : ’7 Its report is one manifestation of the Assembly of State Parties (ASP)’s long-standing emphasis on the ‘performance question’: what are the best ways to measure and improve the Court’s progress towards its goals
The statistical relationship uncovered in this article, between International Criminal court (ICC) involvement and measurable jumps in a population’s human rights interest, is quite powerful
Models 1 and 2 are fully specified using all 170 countries over the five years (850 country-years). Many of these countries are home to human rights searching in multiple languages at once; so, they account for 623 additional observations

Summary

Introduction

Of State Parties (ASP) establishing resolution, the IER performed its work with the aim of ‘enhancing the performance, efficiency and effectiveness of the Court : : : ’7 Its report is one manifestation of the ASP’s long-standing emphasis on the ‘performance question’: what are the best ways to measure and improve the Court’s progress towards its goals?8. It might be that the Court’s contribution comes not from accomplishing clearly defined legal goals with intentional actions, but by engaging in social relations that create stigma and embolden local rights advocates.19 None of these mechanisms depend on the ICC making efficient or effective use of its resources. They trace back to its role as a focal and symbolically important institution of accountability

Results

Discussion

Conclusion