Abstract
Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system.
Highlights
When it comes to international trade, the evidence suggests that we are far from a distance-free world
In particular: How far, in terms of trade, have countries traveled in recent history? What role does each country play in the maps and how have those roles evolved over time? Are Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) consistent with natural communities as measured by trade distances? Has the formation of PTAs led to lesser or greater barriers to trade within blocs? Is trade distance becoming increasingly irrelevant?
The gravity law models the volume of flows in bilateral trade, and, as we have proved, the large-scale architecture of the connections within the international trade system
Summary
Network representations of world trade[9,10,11,12,13] offer a perspective that goes beyond bilateral analysis and allows us to uncover stable large-scale patterns such as the small-world property, heterogeneous distributions of the number of trade partners (degree), and high levels of transitive relationships (clustering). We have reconstructed international trade networks using historical aggregate import/export data from two consistent and consecutive databases. For the period 1870–1996, we used data from[26,27]. We compiled and curated Database S1 which covers the period from 1997 to 2013 (see Supplementary Information). In the reconstructed undirected networks, links represent bilateral trade relationships, and the weight of the link corresponds to the value of goods exchanged in a given year, in current US millions of dollars. 1914–1919 and 1939–1947, were avoided due to the lack of reported information
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