Abstract

To make transformational scientific progress with the space weather enterprise the Sun, Earth, and heliosphere must be studied as a coupled system, comprehensively. Rapid advances were made in the study, and forecasting, of terrestrial meteorology half a century ago that accompanied the dawn of earth observing satellites. Those assets provided a global perspective on the Earth’s weather systems and the ability to look ahead of the observer’s local time. From a heliospheric, or space, weather perspective we have the same fundamental limitation as the terrestrial meteorologists had \-- by far the majority of our observing assets are tied to the Sun-Earth line \-- our planet’s ``local time'' with respect to the Sun. This perspective intrinsically limits our ability to ``see what is coming around the solar limb'' far less to gain any insight into the global patterns of solar weather and how they guide weather throughout the heliosphere. We propose a mission concept \-- the Heliospheric Meteorology Mission (HMM) \-- to sample the complete magnetic and thermodynamic state of the heliosphere inside 1AU using a distributed network of deep space hardened smallsats that encompass the Sun. The observations and in situ plasma measurements made by the fleet of HMM smallsats would be collected, and assimilated into current operational space weather models. Further, the HMM measurements would also being used in an nationally coordinated research effort - at the frontier of understanding the coupled heliospheric system.

Highlights

  • It is widely acknowledged that the discipline of space weather forecasting is five to six decades behind its terrestrial equivalent (e.g., Schrijver et al, 2015)

  • Heliospheric Meteorology Mission (HMM) realizes the vision of the DRIVE initiative of the Decadal Survey (See section 4 of NRC, 2013)

  • Since the 2006 launch of the twin Solar-Terrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO; Howard et al, 2008) satellites and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO; Lemen et al, 2012) in 2010, a picture of globally connected solar phenomenology has developed—the idea that emergence of magnetic flux in one location can trigger an event on the other side of the Sun

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

It is widely acknowledged that the discipline of space weather forecasting is five to six decades behind its terrestrial equivalent (e.g., Schrijver et al, 2015). The Heliospheric Meteorology Mission data followed the identification of Rossby waves in the upper stratosphere (Rossby, 1939) and the recognition that local weather disturbances are intrinsically tied to these globalscale weather patterns (Gray, 1968). This determination led to significant advances in short-, mid-, and long-term forecasting skill (e.g., Thompson, 1983; Win-Nielsen, 1991) and a perception that terrestrial storms, once considered to be intrinsically unpredictable, conceptually transitioned to an intermittent part of a global system that was predictable to an acceptable degree (e.g., Lorenz, 1973). HMM realizes the vision of the DRIVE initiative of the Decadal Survey (See section 4 of NRC, 2013)

SOLAR GLOBAL WEATHER
THE HMM CONCEPT
A NATIONAL STRATEGY
Multi-Agency Strategy
An International Strategy
THE HMM TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
The HMM Proto-Payload Menu
Data Relay Strategy
THE HMM RESEARCH STRATEGY
THE HMM FORECAST STRATEGY
HMM BEYOND THE ECLIPTIC—TO THE POLES
CONCLUSIONS
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