The Heartland no more: Russia's Weakness and Eurasia's Meltdown

Abstract

The Eurasian region continues to disintegrate, and neither Russia nor the West has been able to arrest the destabilizing dynamics. Evidence of rising instability throughout the region include the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, terrorist attacks in the Northern Caucasus, the persistent failure of Western forces to stabilize Afghanistan, the inability of Central Asian rulers to reign in local clans and drug lords, and the paralysis of legitimately elected bodies of power in Ukraine and Moldova. The West's attempts to secure and stabilize Eurasia after the end of the Cold War have not led to success. Russia too has greatly contributed to the Eurasian meltdown. The Soviet collapse and the subsequent retreat of Russia from the region have greatly destabilized the area. The relative recovery of the Russian economy during the post-Yeltsin decade began to revive Russia's standing in Eurasia, yet Moscow could ill afford serious efforts to stabilize and pacify the region. Russia's resurgence is a response to its lacking recognition as a vital power and partner of the West. If Russia chooses to dedicate itself to obstructing Western policies in Eurasia, we will see more of the collapsing dynamics in the region. Preventing this requires recognizing Russia's role in stabilizing the region and working with Russia in developing a joint assessment of threat and establishing a collective security arrangement in Eurasia.