The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model

Abstract

A multi-generational model of gypsy moth phenology was developed from existing literature and used to assess the risk of establishment of this exotic pest across North America based on the suitability of 4457 locations in satisfying the temperature requirements for seasonal development. Approximately 595 million hectares of North America is estimated to be climatically suitable for gypsy moth establishment. Limits to the potential range exist in the southern United States because of limits to diapause development, and in northern Canada because of slower prediapause and larval development. A 1.5 °C increase in mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as might occur with global climate change, would result in a range expansion in the north, a range contraction in the south, and a net increase in range of approximately 16%. The model is described and the probable limitations to establishment are discussed.