The Gulf’s shifting geoeconomy and China’s structural power: From the petrodollar to the petroyuan?

Abstract

Oil trade-related monetary arrangements have far-reaching impacts on the international monetary system and the global financial circuit. Current arrangements were set in the mid-1970s through the establishment of the petrodollar regime. This article empirically assesses the effective and potential impacts of the change in the integration pattern of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the global economy on the two pillars of the petrodollar: recycling oil export revenue into the US economy and invoicing oil exclusively in dollars. The results show that the effectiveness of the petrodollar regime has been significantly reduced as China has overtaken the United States as the largest destination for the recycling of the oil receipts from the GCC through the trade channel. This article investigates the possible further expansion of oil settlements in the renminbi (RMB), based on China–GCC relations, following China’s release of the petroyuan contracts. The structure and the weight of their trade and investment relations constitute solid grounds to settle bilateral oil trade in RMBs. Moreover, China’s targeted and regulated financial opening provides operating channels for overseas holders of RMBs to invest in China’s relatively attractive assets. To better discern the GCC’s inclination to change their oil-invoicing arrangements, this article analyses their participation in the RMB internationalization channel.