The Growth Path of Agricultural Labor Productivity in China: A Latent Growth Curve Model at the Prefectural Level

Peng Bin,Marco Vassallo

doi:10.3390/economies4030013

Abstract

Given the shrinking proportion of agriculture output and the growing mobility of the labor force in China, how agricultural labor productivity develops has become an increasingly attractive topic for researchers and policy makers. This study aims to depict the development trajectory of agricultural labor productivity in China after its WTO entry. Based on a balanced panel data containing 287 Chinese prefectures from 2000 to 2013, this study applies the Latent Growth Curve Model (LGCM) and finds that the agricultural labor productivity follows a piecewise growth path with two breaking points in the years of 2004 and 2009. This may stem from some exogenous stimulus, such as supporting policies launched in the breaking years. Further statistical analysis shows an expanding gap of agricultural labor productivity among different Chinese prefectures.

Highlights

As a new emerging economy with a large population to feed, how to improve agricultural productivity has always been a key point for food security and social stability in China
For the sake of brevity, we only present the unspecified curve unstandardized estimates with free estimated factor loadings with constraining λ00 = 0 and λ13 = 1 and freeing errors between AP03 and AP04 and between AP09 and AP10 6
Our study firstly demonstrated that the Chinese agricultural labor productivity developed certainly as an increasing but non-linear trajectory

Summary

Introduction

As a new emerging economy with a large population to feed, how to improve agricultural productivity has always been a key point for food security and social stability in China. It had been a top priority to provide people with adequate food and clothing in the early stage of China’s industrialization and urbanization. This demand has been continually upgraded with the rapid socioeconomic development of the country after its market liberalization. The market reform brings farmers more access to production goods, and additional job opportunities in the other industries. The development in science and technology releases a great amount of the agricultural labor force and boosts productivity.

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Conclusion