The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the driving forces behind it

Abstract

Central Asia (CA) is one of the most severe water crisis areas on earth, which has seriously limited the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the region. However, a multi-perspective analysis on the process and driving factors of the water crisis in CA has not been conducted. Therefore, we assess the water crisis from multiple perspectives using the water stress index (WSI), safe drinking water and water pollution indicators, and quantitatively analyze the impact of climate change, population growth, poverty, urbanization and transboundary river management on the water crisis. Results show that the water crisis in CA is intensifying. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan belong to the “severe water stress” category, and the WSIs are increasing in both countries. Tajikistan is classified as “high water stress”. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan both exhibit “moderate water stress”. Moreover, the proportion of the rural population with access to safe drinking water is significantly lower than that of the urban population in all the CA countries. The impact of human activities on water crisis in CA is more significant than that of climatic factors. Both cultivated land area and population are significant factors affecting the water crisis in CA (p < 0.05), with the regression coefficients of 0.62 and 1.62, respectively. Our research provides an essential reference for the sustainable management of water resources and warns that the water security situation in CA will worsen if no effective action is taken.