The Grocery Trolley Race in Times of Covid-19. Evidence from Italy

Abstract

We study sales dynamics of grocery chain stores during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemics in Italy. We document a sustained growth in revenues for storable products, such as food staples and household supplies, arising right before restrictions to mobility were introduced, and protracted throughout the whole lockdown period. We further look into the revenue surge, by disentangling the role of different types of stores. We find that the increase has been driven by the dynamics of smaller outlets, located in urban areas, closer to the city center, while hypermarkets faced a drop during the lockdown period, plausibly related to their more peripheral position. We also exploit both the remarkable granularity of scanner data, and the staggered implementation of restrictions across Italian regions to causally identify the short-term effects of mobility constraints on outlets' sales. According to our estimates, large grocery stores in areas subject to lockdown measures earned revenues around 10 percent lower than their control group's.