Abstract
ABSTRACT: Northern Ireland’s elections have always been fought over whether that polity should remain in the UK or become part of a united Ireland. Since 1970 a fluctuating proportion of the electorate have voted for such parties as the Alliance and Green parties, which are currently neutral on this constitutional issue. Previous studies of PR-STV transfers have tended to focus on overall transfers to parties; this paper analyses the transfers from these two parties in the 2023 local government elections, in count distributions where both nationalist and unionist bloc candidates were available. The analysis shows that nationalists benefited disproportionally from these transfers. It is estimated that most of Northern Ireland’s voters gave either a first preference or their highest non-Other preference to nationalist bloc candidates. Opportunities and challenges facing reunificationists and unionists are discussed in the new context of a nationalist bloc vote plurality amid increasing calls for a border poll.
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