The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Rising Sea Level: Implications for Development

Abstract

The 'greenhouse effect' is likely to change the global climate substantially, with serious implications for the developing countries. By the year 2030, it is estimated that the global-mean surface temperature may be about 1-20C higher than today. Given the range of uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissons, the sensitivity of climate and the rate of oceanic heat uptake, the warming could be as little as 0-50C or as high as 2-50C. By 2030, the corresponding rise in global-mean sea level is estimated to range from 5-44 cm, with a best estimate of 17-26 cm higher than today. The developing countries, so far minor contributors to the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, are quickly becoming major contributors due to growth in both population and energy consumption. This implies that developing countries must be actively involved in any international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow global warming. Moreover, in terms of impacts, the developing countries may be among the most vulnerable countries of the world. Although the regional details of climatic change cannot yet be predicted accurately, there is particular concern about possible changes in the frequencies of climatic extremes, in monsoon regimes, and in the magnitude and frequency of severe tropical storms. A rise in global sea level could exacerbate problems of flooding, salinization and erosion already being experienced in many parts of the developing world. There are compelling reasons to initiate actions to reduce the growth rates of greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming.