The greenhouse effect: An interdisciplinary perspective

Abstract

A recent, rather typical, essay argues that even if the greenhouse threat is real, even if temperatures rise and low-lying lands must be protected forever by an enormous system of dikes, such unlikely occurrences do not justify “imposing vast costs on the present generation rather than helping developing countries overcome the environmental problems that they are facing today.” This review shows that anyone willing to cross disciplinary boundaries, or willing to listen to scholars who have taken this less-traveled road, can easily ascertain that this surprisingly popular viewpoint is mistaken. This review's interdisciplinary journey begins with an exposition of a few fundamental, noncontroversial, ecological insights. These are followed by a brief case study in environmental history: the CFC-ozone link. The natural greenhouse effect is then introduced, relying for the most part on comparative astronomical data and insights. The nature of, evidence for, and the largely uncertain consequences of, the enhanced greenhouse effect on Earth are taken up next. For argument's sake, a conservative and arbitrary estimate is adopted, assuming that the chances of adverse greenhouse consequences within the next century are 10%; of a cataclysm, 1%. Such chances, this review then conclusively shows, should not be taken, because there is no conceivable reason for taking them: the steps that will eliminate the greenhouse threat will also save money and cut pollution, accrue many other beneficial consequences, and only entail negligible negative consequences. Thus, a holistic review leads to the surprising conclusion that humanity is risking its future for less than nothing. Claims that the greenhouse controversy is legitimate, that it involves hard choices, that it is value-laden, or that it cannot be resolved by disinterested analysis, are tragically mistaken. Given the stakes of the greenhouse debate—the future of humanity—concerned scholars and citizens ought to understand this issue. This review provides an accessible, factual, holistic, and self-contained portrayal of the greenhouse threat.