Abstract
In 1896, Svante Arrhenius proposed a model predicting that increased concentration of carbon dioxide and water vapour in the atmosphere would result in a warming of the planet. In his model, the warming effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapour in preventing heat flow from the Earth’ s surface (now known as the “Greenhouse Effect”) are counteracted by a cooling effect where the same gasses are responsible for the radiation of heat to space from the atmosphere. His analysis found that there was a net warming effect and his model has remained the foundation of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect—Global Warming hypothesis. This paper attempts to quantify the parameters in his equations but on evaluation his model cannot produce thermodynamic equilibrium. A modified model is proposed which reveals that increased atmospheric emissivity enhances the ability of the atmosphere to radiate heat to space overcoming the cooling effect resulting in a net cooling of the planet. In consideration of this result, there is a need for greenhouse effect—global warming models to be revised.
Highlights
The origins of the greenhouse effect theory can be traced back to the Swedish scientist, Svante August Arrhenius (1859-1927)
This model proposes that an increase in atmospheric emissivity which would occur with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, will lead to a DECREASE in global surface temperature! The warming effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapour concentrations, inhibiting heat flow from the Earth’s surface is counter-acted by a cooling effect where the same gasses are responsible for increased radiation of heat from the Earth’s atmosphere
Arrhenius identified the fact that the emissivity/absorptivity of the atmosphere increased with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and this would affect the temperature of the Earth
Summary
The origins of the greenhouse effect theory can be traced back to the Swedish scientist, Svante August Arrhenius (1859-1927). In 1896 Arrhenius proposed that changes in the levels of “carbonic acid” (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature of the Earth. This has come to be known as the greenhouse effect. Arrhenius’ paper, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground”, was published in Philosophical Magazine Arrhenius asks in his introduction: Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of heat absorbing gases in the atmosphere? His model remains the basis for most modern energy equilibrium models
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