The green vote in presidential elections: Past performance and future promise

Abstract

The electoral impact of the environment issue has been debated for years. Thus far, evidence regarding the issue's electoral impact has concentrated on the 1996 presidential election. Two of the three inquiries into that contest found that the environment had a significant impact on voters’ candidate choices. In an effort to clarify the environment's electoral impact, this research expands the inquiry to include five presidential elections, 1984 through 2000. Findings indicate that the environment had a significant impact in four of these five elections—all but in 2000. The research goes on to examine reasons for variability in the environment's impact, concluding that candidates who play the role of environmental villain/adversary have a surprisingly important role in the issue's electoral strength.