The Green Revolution, grain imports, and income divergence in the developing world

Abstract

This study finds that the Green Revolution (GR), initiated in the 1960s, substantially increased grain imports and reduced economic growth in developing countries with below-average adoption of GR technologies. Using the exogenous timing of the GR across crops cultivated in different countries, this study estimates that, for an average developing country with an adoption rate of GR crops below the developing world average, the GR that occurred in other countries more than tripled its grain imports. This, in turn, reduced the GDP per capita by approximately one-third in low-adopting countries between 1965 and 2000. The substantial damage can be mostly explained by the resulting lower agricultural outputs, higher fertility, and lower human capital investment. This study suggests that increasing agricultural productivity is the most pertinent way to accelerate the stagnant growth historically experienced by developing countries damaged by the GR.