The “Great Replacement” conspiracy: How the perceived ousting of Whites can evoke violent extremism and Islamophobia

Milan Obaidi,Sasha Y Kimel,Jonas Kunst,Simon Ozer

doi:10.1177/13684302211028293

Abstract

Increased immigration and demographic changes have not only resulted in political pushback, but also in violent attacks against immigrants. Several recent terrorist attacks committed by White supremacists invoke rhetoric around a deliberate attempt to make Whites extinct and replace them with non-Western immigrants. Yet, while it is widely acknowledged among extremism researchers that this perception of orchestrated extinction or replacement has tremendous potential to lead to violent extremism, its consequences have not yet been directly examined. Using the Scandinavian context (e.g., Denmark and Norway), in two correlational studies and one experiment, we provide evidence that this perception is associated with the persecution of Muslims, violent intentions, and Islamophobia. Further, we demonstrate that these associations are mediated by symbolic threats. Conspiracy beliefs that one’s group is being replaced seem to drive hostile intergroup attitudes. We discuss the societal implications of this finding (i.e., generating fear, polarization, and hostile public opinion towards immigrants).

Highlights

Increased immigration and demographic changes have resulted in political pushback, and in violent attacks against immigrants
Recently leaked emails show the former White House senior advisor Stephen Miller promoting far-right extremist, White nationalist ideas, and anti-immigrant rhetoric through the conservative website Breitbart. Too, he appeared fixated on the prospect of a “White genocide”
Research on how perceived demographic shifts impact violent extremism (i.e., “a violent type of mobilization that aims to elevate the status of one group, while excluding or dominating its ‘others’ based on markers, such as gender, religion, culture and ethnicity”; Bak et al, 2019, p. 8) is largely missing

Summary

Introduction

Increased immigration and demographic changes have resulted in political pushback, and in violent attacks against immigrants. Examining whether and how the prevalence of extreme anti-immigrant attitudes is impacted by rhetoric adopting aspects of the “Great Replacement” conspiracy (i.e., the argument that White populations are being replaced at an ethnic and cultural level through mass migration; Davey & Ebner, 2019) is of great theoretical and practical interest for several reasons Such ideas are no longer limited to the outer fringes of the public discourse, as the proponents of this conspiracy can be found in mainstream politics, the media, and the general public (Bellware, 2019). Understanding the implications of this conspiracy is of urgent societal and theoretical importance

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Conclusion