The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis

Anna Matysiak,Daniele Vignoli,Tomáš Sobotka

doi:10.1553/0x003ccd44

Abstract

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth affected fertility before and during the recent economic recession in Europe. To this end, we use data for 258 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states and Iceland. We apply three-level growth-curve models which allow for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change and handling hierarchically structured data. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase and that this relationship was significant at all ages. Fertility responded to worsening economic conditions especially in Southern Europe and in Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. two broad regions which were considerably affected by the recession and where welfare policies provided lowest support against poverty and unemployment

Highlights

The global Great Recession that started in autumn 2007 in the United States hit eventually almost all European countries, with many experiencing plummeting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and rising unemployment for most of the 2008-2013 period
Our study aims to expand the understanding of the links between deteriorating economic conditions and fertility rates during the recent recession in Europe
To provide a comparable perspective on the effects of individual components of economic and labour market changes analysed here, we present average annual changes in fertility rates which would be observed in a hypothetical situation if unemployment rate, share of long-term unemployed, proportion of self-employed and the share of NEET increased by 10 percentage points or if the GDP declined by 10 pp in a year

Summary

Introduction

The global Great Recession that started in autumn 2007 in the United States hit eventually almost all European countries, with many experiencing plummeting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and rising unemployment for most of the 2008-2013 period. The increase in the period total fertility rates (TFR) that started around the turn of the century has peaked in 2008-10; thereafter fertility rates declined or levelled off in most European countries, especially among young women below age 25 (Sobotka et al 2011; Goldstein et al 2013; Lanzieri 2013; Sobotka 2013; Sobotka et al 2015). The fertility decline has been more pronounced in countries and regions that experienced stronger economic downturns and faster increases in unemployment, especially in Southern Europe (Lanzieri 2013)

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Results

Conclusion