The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

Anna Matysiak,Tomáš Sobotka,Daniele Vignoli

doi:10.1007/s10680-020-09556-y

Abstract

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002–2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

Highlights

The global Great Recession that started in autumn 2007 in the USA has hit almost all European countries, with many experiencing falling gross domestic product (GDP) and rising unemployment for most of the period of 2008–2013
To provide a comparable perspective on the effects of individual components of economic and labour market changes, we present average annual changes in fertility rates, which would be observed in a hypothetical situation if unemployment rate, share of long-term unemployed and the share of NEET
The deterioration of economic and labour market conditions was related to fertility decline across all reproductive ages, including higher reproductive ages when further postponement of fertility may limit the chances for future pregnancy (Fig. 1)

Summary

Introduction

The global Great Recession that started in autumn 2007 in the USA has hit almost all European countries, with many experiencing falling gross domestic product (GDP) and rising unemployment for most of the period of 2008–2013. Previous economic recessions frequently led to fertility declines and stimulated fertility postponement (Sobotka et al 2011; Cherlin et al 2013). The fertility decline was more pronounced in countries and regions that experienced stronger economic downturns and faster increases in unemployment, especially in Southern Europe (Lanzieri 2013). Fertility rates dropped in the Nordic countries, which experienced rather mild economic decline (except in Denmark) and which continued providing extensive welfare and family policies (Comolli et al 2019)

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